엔비 주식을 8월 28일 어닝 전에 매수해야하나?

Should You Buy Nvidia Stock Before August 28? Here's What the Evidence Suggests.

 https://youtu.be/62HbmrMG-OI

Key Points

Nvidia stock has gained 619% since the advent of AI early last year.

The company has become the standard bearer for the AI revolution.

Plenty of evidence suggests its epic run will continue, albeit not in a straight line.

 

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The AI chipmaker is scheduled to report results later this month. Can the stock continue its relentless climb?

 

The adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) is ongoing, but some investors fear the trend is getting a little long in the tooth. Fears about the economy and weakness in AI stocks helped push the Nasdaq Composite into correction territory earlier this month, and with valuations stretched, some believe there could be further declines ahead.

 

Nvidia (NVDA 4.08%) has become the poster child for the generative AI trend. When the company reports its results later this month, it's not hyperbole to suggest that Wall Street will be sitting on the edge of its seat, hoping to gain insight into the state of AI adoption.

 

Nvidia's sales have skyrocketed since the start of 2023, driving the stock up 619% (as of this writing), though it's currently more than 22% off its high.

 

With so much riding on Nvidia's quarterly results, investors are wondering whether the recent stock price decline represents a buying opportunity ahead of the company's highly anticipated financial report. Let's review the available evidence.

 

Anecdotal data is strong

The biggest driver for Nvidia over the past 18 months has been the rapid adoption of generative AI by cloud infrastructure providers best positioned to monetize AI. Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs) are the gold standard for these applications.

 

As a result, cloud infrastructure providers, including Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Alphabet's Google Cloud, have been upgrading their data centers to provide the computational horsepower needed to run AI. Even Meta Platforms has jumped on the bandwagon, creating one of the leading large language models (LLMs) so it can profit from AI.

 

Demand for Nvidia's AI-centric processors remains robust among the cloud leaders, and each has highlighted plans for higher capex spending to support their AI aspirations. This bodes well for Nvidia in the current quarter.

 

Rivals and partners are reporting robust sales

There's further evidence that suggests Nvidia's results will be robust.

 

Current price:Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 1.86%), otherwise known as AMD, is one of Nvidia's biggest rivals in the GPU space. The company reported its second-quarter results late last month, and the strength of its AI-related sales caught many market watchers off guard. While revenue grew 9% year over year and beat expectations, its data center sales surged to a record $2.58 billion, up 115%, driven higher by soaring demand for AI.

 

Current price:Arm Holdings (ARM 0.11%) creates the CPU cores found in many of Nvidia's AI processors, and its results were similarly upbeat. For its fiscal 2025 first quarter (ended June 30), Arm reported its fourth consecutive quarter of record results. The company generated record revenue of $939 million, up 39% year over year, the result of record license revenue driven by "the proliferation of AI.“

 

Super Micro Computer (SMCI 6.33%) supplies server and storage solutions featuring next-generation AI processors from Nvidia and others. For the company's fiscal 2024 fourth quarter (ended June 30), revenue of $5.3 billion grew 143% year over year and 38% quarter over quarter. Despite its parabolic growth rate, management noted Supermicro continued to be hamstrung by short-term "supply chain bottlenecks."

 

The thread that runs through these AI players is that demand remained strong in the most recent quarter, driven by the secular tailwind of AI. This suggests Nvidia's sales should be similarly robust.

 

Stock splits are bullish

There are other reasons to believe Nvidia stock could have additional upside from here. Research by analysts at Bank of America shows that in the 12 months following a stock-split announcement, stock-split stocks gained 25%, on average, compared to just 12% for the S&P 500.

 

Since Nvidia announced its stock split on May 22, the stock has actually fallen 19% (as of this writing), as fears regarding the state of the economy overshadowed the tailwinds of AI. If history is any indicator, Nvidia still has plenty of double-digit upside potential ahead.

 

Is the stock a buy before August 28?

For investors looking to make a fast buck, Nvidia is likely not the stock for you. As the recent stock chart shows, Nvidia has been -- and will continue to be -- a volatile stock. While investors who bought last year are likely sitting on triple-digit gains, those who bought last month could be down more than 22%. This helps to illustrate a timeless investing truth: It's best to buy shares in the best companies you can find and hold them for three to five years, as you're less likely to suffer the impact of short-term volatility.

 

For those wondering whether Nvidia stock will go up or down after its upcoming financial report, your guess is as good as mine. I sent my crystal ball to the shop years ago, but it still hasn't come back. Furthermore, anyone who professes to know what will happen in the days or weeks that follow is being less than truthful.

 

Current price:If I were to hazard a guess -- and that's all it would be -- I suspect Nvidia will report another quarter of record sales. Analysts' consensus estimates are calling for revenue of $28.52 billion, slightly ahead of Nvidia's guidance of $28 billion. However, much of how the stock price reacts in the wake of the report will depend on the company's profitability and Nvidia's forward-looking guidance.

 

It's important to take a step back and look at the big picture. Nvidia's GPUs are the gold standard for AI processing, and while there's always the threat of competition, no heir apparent has emerged. Most experts believe it's still early innings for generative AI as adoption continues to ramp up. Even the most conservative estimates suggest that generative AI will be a trillion-dollar market, with some forecasts multitudes higher.

 

Nvidia stock trades at a premium of 38 times earnings (as of this writing), but the company's triple-digit growth, industry-leading position, and long track record show that it's worth every penny.

 

My advice to you is this: If you believe -- like I do -- that AI has a long way to go and Nvidia will maintain its dominance in the market, then buy Nvidia stock and hold on for dear life.

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/08/11/should-you-buy-nvidia-stock-before-august-28-heres/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

빠른 수익을 얻고자 하는 투자자들에게 엔비디아는 당신에게 적합한 주식이 아닐 것입니다. 최근 주식 차트에서 알 수 있듯이 엔비디아는 변동성이 큰 주식이었고 앞으로도 그럴 것입니다. 작년에 매수한 투자자들은 세 자릿수 상승률을 기록할 가능성이 높은 반면, 지난 달에 매수한 투자자들은 22% 이상 하락할 수 있습니다. 이것은 시대를 초월한 투자 진실을 보여줍니다. 단기적인 변동성의 영향을 받을 가능성이 적기 때문에, 당신이 찾을 수 있는 가장 좋은 회사의 주식을 3년에서 5년 동안 보유하는 것이 가장 좋습니다.

 

엔비디아 주가가 곧 발표될 재무 보고서 이후에 오를지 내릴지 궁금해하시는 분들을 위해, 독자 분의 추측은 저만큼 훌륭합니다. 저는 수년 전에 크리스털 볼을 가게에 보냈지만, 아직도 돌아오지 않고 있습니다. 게다가, 그 후 며칠 또는 몇 주 안에 무슨 일이 일어날지 알고 있다고 공언하는 사람은 누구나 진실을 인정하지 않습니다.

 

현재 가격: 제가 추측을 해본다면 -- 그리고 그것이 전부라면 -- 저는 엔비디아가 또 다른 분기의 기록적인 매출을 발표할 것이라고 추측합니다. 분석가들의 컨센서스 추정치는 285억 2천만 달러의 매출을 요구하고 있는데, 이는 엔비디아의 가이던스인 280억 달러를 약간 앞서는 것입니다. 하지만, 보고서 발표 이후 주가가 어떻게 반응할지는 회사의 수익성과 엔비디아의 미래에 대한 가이던스에 달려 있습니다.

 

 

한 걸음 물러서서 큰 그림을 보는 것이 중요합니다. 엔비디아의 GPU는 AI 처리의 금본위제이며, 항상 경쟁의 위협이 있지만 뚜렷한 후계자는 나타나지 않았습니다. 대부분의 전문가들은 채택이 계속 증가함에 따라 제너레이티브 AI의 초기 단계라고 생각합니다. 가장 보수적인 추정치조차도 제너레이티브 AI는 조 달러 규모의 시장이 될 것이며, 일부 예측치는 더 높을 것이라고 제안합니다.

 

엔비디아 주식은 38배의 수익(본 문서 기준)에 프리미엄이 붙어 거래되고 있지만, 세 자릿수 성장률, 업계 최고의 위치, 롱트랙 기록 등을 보면 한 푼이라도 가치가 있음을 알 수 있습니다.

 

제가 여러분께 드리는 조언은 다음과 같습니다. 만약 여러분이 저처럼 인공지능이 갈 길이 멀고 엔비디아가 시장에서 지배력을 유지할 것이라고 믿는다면, 엔비디아 주식을 사서 평생을 버틴다는 것입니다.