7 Tech Stocks to Sell Before They Plummet in a 2024 Recession

These tech stocks could drag down your portfolio with them during a recession

• Palantir (PLTR): Trading at 83 times forward earnings, this data analytics company is priced for perfection despite decelerating growth expectations.
• Coinbase (COIN): The cryptocurrency exchange’s fortunes are tied to the volatile crypto market, making it a risky bet in an economic downturn.
• Robinhood (HOOD): This trading platform’s reliance on sentiment-driven users targeting volatile stocks could spell trouble in a recession.
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• 이러한 기술 주식은 경기 침체 시 포트폴리오를 끌어내릴 수 있습니다.
  Palantir(PLTR): 83배의 전망 수익으로 거래되는 이 데이터 분석 회사는 성장 기대치가 감소했음에도 불구하고 완벽한 가격을 책정했습니다.
  Coinbase(COIN): 이 암호화폐 거래소의 운명은 변동성이 큰 암호화폐 시장과 연결되어 있어 경기 침체 시 위험한 도박이 됩니다.
  Robinhood(HOOD): 이 거래 플랫폼은 변동성이 큰 주식을 타겟으로 하는 감정 주도 사용자에 의존하기 때문에 경기 침체 시 문제가 될 수 있습니다.
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If you’ve been paying attention, you know that tech stocks have been the rocket fuel propelling this bull market to dizzying heights. However, these high-flyers could come crashing back to Earth when the downturn hits.

Many tech darlings have already suffered steep pullbacks. And if macros get worse, the pain for these overvalued names will only worsen. It’s time to take a page out of Warren Buffett’s playbook and start rotating into safer assets.

Dividend stocks are looking mighty attractive at these valuations, and Treasury yields are juicier than they’ve been in years. Sure, a recession isn’t guaranteed. But with so many indicators flashing warning signs, it’s a good idea to take some profits.

No one can predict how ugly things might get. But if you’re looking to play some defense, here are seven tech stocks to sell before the potential plunge:

 

Palantir (PLTR)

Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) provides data analytics software to government agencies and large corporations. The company has seen strong revenue growth, especially from its U.S. government contracts which grew 24% year-over-year in Q2 2024.

While Palantir’s deep government ties make it a stable long-term investment, I wouldn’t touch this stock with a ten-foot pole heading into a potential recession. Trading at a nosebleed valuation of 83 times forward earnings and 24 times sales, Palantir is priced for perfection. However, with analysts expecting revenue growth to decelerate to the 20% range next year, I doubt the market will keep paying such a hefty premium.

Bears like Mizuho’s Gregg Moskowitz are already sounding the alarm, recently downgrading Palantir to “Underperform” on valuation concerns. He notes the stock trades at “an exceedingly large 160% premium” to software peers. When the economy turns south, and investors flee to safety, high-flying names like Palantir could be in for a rude awakening. If you own it, I’d lock in profits before the bottom falls out.

 

Coinbase (COIN)

 

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) operates a cryptocurrency exchange platform. The company has been struggling lately, with its stock price down over 28% from its 2024 highs amid a broader crypto market downturn.

If you’ve paid any attention to the crypto market, you know it’s prone to extreme volatility and sentiment-driven swings due to the speculative nature of most cryptocurrencies. Coinbase’s fortunes are strongly tied to this erratic market, which is why I believe it’s one of the riskiest stocks to own heading into a potential recession.

Bitcoin (BTC-USD) has only weathered one recession so far in 2020, and it didn’t exactly shine. With BTC still trading at lofty levels, there’s plenty of downside risk. Coinbase also relies heavily on the altcoin market for revenue, and that’s been absolutely crushed lately. In a recession, expect altcoins to get obliterated as investors flee to safety.

Despite this, Coinbase trades at a steep 35 times earnings and over eight times sales.

 

Analysts expect revenue to decline in coming years until the next Bitcoin halving (possibly) sparks another speculative frenzy. In my view, blockchain stocks are only worth chasing at rock-bottom valuations, not these nosebleed levels.

주의를 기울여 왔다면, 기술 주식이 이 강세장을 어지러울 정도로 높이 끌어올린 로켓 연료라는 것을 알고 계실 겁니다. 그러나 이러한 고공행진 주식은 경기 침체가 닥치면 지구로 추락할 수 있습니다.
많은 기술 주식이 이미 가파른 폭락을 겪었습니다. 그리고 거시경제가 악화되면 이러한 과대평가된 주식의 고통은 더 심해질 뿐입니다. 워렌 버핏의 플레이북에서 한 장을 떼어 안전한 자산으로 전환할 때입니다.
배당 주식은 이러한 가치 평가에서 매우 매력적으로 보이고 국채 수익률은 수년 만에 가장 수익성이 높습니다. 물론 경기 침체가 보장되는 것은 아닙니다. 그러나 많은 지표가 경고 신호를 비추고 있으므로 약간의 이익을 취하는 것이 좋습니다.
아무도 상황이 얼마나 악화될지 예측할 수 없습니다. 하지만 방어를 하고 싶다면 잠재적 폭락 전에 매도할 기술 주식 7개를 소개합니다.

Palantir(PLTR)
Palantir(NYSE:PLTR)는 정부 기관과 대기업에 데이터 분석 소프트웨어를 제공합니다. 이 회사는 특히 2024년 2분기에 전년 대비 24% 성장한 미국 정부 계약에서 강력한 매출 성장을 보였습니다.
Palantir의 깊은 정부 연계로 인해 안정적인 장기 투자가 가능하지만, 잠재적 경기 침체로 향하는 10피트 막대기로 이 주식을 건드리지 않을 것입니다. 83배의 예상 이익과 24배의 매출이라는 엄청난 가치 평가로 거래되는 Palantir는 완벽한 가격을 책정했습니다. 그러나 분석가들은 내년에 매출 성장이 20% 범위로 둔화될 것으로 예상하고 있기 때문에 시장이 계속해서 그렇게 큰 프리미엄을 지불할 것이라고는 생각하지 않습니다.
미즈호의 그렉 모스코비츠와 같은 곰들은 이미 경고를 울리고 있으며, 최근 밸류에이션 우려로 팔란티르를 "실적 미달"로 격하했습니다. 그는 이 주식이 소프트웨어 동업사보다 "매우 큰 160% 프리미엄"으로 거래된다고 지적합니다. 경제가 침체되고 투자자들이 안전 자산으로 도망치면 팔란티르와 같은 고공행진하는 이름들은 불쾌한 각성을 겪을 수 있습니다. 여러분이 소유하고 있다면 바닥이 떨어지기 전에 수익을 확보할 것입니다.

코인베이스(COIN)

코인베이스(NASDAQ:COIN)는 암호화폐 거래 플랫폼을 운영합니다. 이 회사는 최근 어려움을 겪고 있으며, 암호화폐 시장이 전반적으로 침체되는 가운데 주가가 2024년 최고치에서 28% 이상 하락했습니다.
암호화폐 시장에 주의를 기울였다면 대부분 암호화폐의 투기적 특성으로 인해 극심한 변동성과 감정 주도적 변동이 발생하기 쉽다는 것을 알고 있을 것입니다. Coinbase의 운명은 이 불규칙한 시장과 긴밀히 연결되어 있기 때문에 잠재적 경기 침체에 돌입할 때 가장 위험한 주식 중 하나라고 생각합니다.
비트코인(BTC-USD)은 2020년에 지금까지 단 한 번의 경기 침체만 견뎌냈고, 그다지 빛나지 않았습니다. BTC가 여전히 높은 수준에서 거래되고 있기 때문에 하락 위험이 많습니다. Coinbase는 또한 수익을 위해 대체 코인 시장에 크게 의존하고 있으며, 최근에는 완전히 무너졌습니다. 경기 침체 시 투자자들이 안전 자산으로 도망치면서 대체 코인이 파괴될 것으로 예상됩니다.
이러한 상황에도 불구하고 Coinbase는 수익의 35배, 매출의 8배 이상으로 거래되고 있습니다.

분석가들은 다음 비트코인 ​​반감기(아마도)가 또 다른 투기 열풍을 일으킬 때까지 향후 몇 년 동안 수익이 감소할 것으로 예상합니다. 제 생각에 블록체인 주식은 이렇게 엄청난 수준이 아니라 바닥가치 평가에서만 추적할 가치가 있습니다.

Robinhood (HOOD)

 

Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) operates a popular commission-free trading platform for stocks, options, and cryptocurrencies. The company has been on a wild ride lately, with its stock up nearly 200% from its 2023 lows to its July 2024 peak before plummeting 23% in the past month amid the broader market correction.

Robinhood reported record Q2 2024 results, with revenues surging 40% year-over-year to $682 million, GAAP earnings per share of 21 cents, and net deposits growing 41% to $13.2 billion. The company is benefiting from renewed interest in meme stocks and crypto trading. However, the Securities and Exchange Commission issued a warning in May about potential enforcement action against Robinhood’s crypto business.

In my view, Robinhood is pretty similar to Coinbase. Sure, Robinhood is more insulated since it doesn’t rely entirely on crypto, but the platform attracts a lot of sentiment-driven users targeting volatile stocks. I think a recession could be a nightmare for HOOD stock. The recent correction caused a steep 23% drop in just a month.

I expect HOOD to amplify any market moves going forward, so with a potential recession looming, this is a no-go for me.

 

Matterport (MTTR)

 

Matterport (NASDAQ:MTTR) offers a spatial data platform for digitizing and managing buildings, but I’d steer clear of this stock and most others in the space industry right now. The company has been experiencing solid growth, with Q2 revenue up 6.7% year-over-year to $42.2 million, but its losses are mounting at an alarming rate. Net loss ballooned to a staggering $141.6 million in Q2, a 150% increase from the prior year.

The space sector is highly dependent on external funding, which will likely dry up fast if a recession hits in the coming quarters. With only around $364 million in cash remaining, Matterport could burn through its reserves. Even if a downturn is avoided, this startup will still be unprofitable for a while with low revenue growth.

A stock with fundamentals like this does not deserve to trade at nearly 8x forward sales.

There are also plenty of other companies in the geospatial data sector that are already profitable and get much more attention from investors.

Robinhood(HOOD)

Robinhood(NASDAQ:HOOD)는 주식, 옵션, 암호화폐에 대한 인기 있는 수수료 없는 거래 플랫폼을 운영합니다. 이 회사는 최근에 엄청난 상승세를 보였으며, 2023년 최저치에서 2024년 7월 최고치까지 주가가 거의 200% 상승한 후 지난달에는 광범위한 시장 조정 속에서 23% 폭락했습니다.
Robinhood는 2024년 2분기 실적을 기록했으며, 매출은 전년 대비 40% 급증하여 6억 8,200만 달러, GAAP 주당 순이익은 21센트, 순예금은 41% 증가하여 132억 달러에 달했습니다. 이 회사는 밈 주식과 암호화폐 거래에 대한 관심이 다시 높아지면서 이익을 얻고 있습니다. 그러나 증권거래위원회는 5월에 Robinhood의 암호화폐 사업에 대한 잠재적인 집행 조치에 대해 경고를 발표했습니다.
제 생각에 Robinhood는 Coinbase와 매우 유사합니다. 물론 Robinhood는 전적으로 암호화폐에 의존하지 않기 때문에 더 안전하지만, 이 플랫폼은 변동성이 큰 주식을 타겟으로 하는 감정에 따라 움직이는 많은 사용자를 끌어들입니다. 저는 경기 침체가 HOOD 주식에 악몽이 될 수 있다고 생각합니다. 최근의 조정으로 인해 단 한 달 만에 23%가 급락했습니다.
저는 HOOD가 앞으로 시장 움직임을 확대할 것으로 예상하므로 잠재적인 경기 침체가 다가오면 이것은 저에게는 안 될 일입니다.

Matterport(MTTR)

Matterport(NASDAQ:MTTR)는 건물을 디지털화하고 관리하기 위한 공간 데이터 플랫폼을 제공하지만, 저는 지금 당장 이 주식과 우주 산업의 대부분 주식을 피하고 싶습니다. 이 회사는 견고한 성장을 경험하고 있으며, 2분기 매출은 전년 대비 6.7% 증가한 4,220만 달러를 기록했지만 손실은 놀라운 속도로 증가하고 있습니다. 순손실은 2분기에 무려 1억 4,160만 달러로 급증했으며, 이는 전년 대비 150% 증가한 수치입니다.
우주 부문은 외부 자금에 크게 의존하고 있으며, 향후 분기에 경기 침체가 닥치면 자금이 빠르게 고갈될 가능성이 높습니다. 약 3억 6,400만 달러의 현금만 남아 있는 Matterport는 비축금을 모두 소진할 수 있습니다. 경기 침체를 피하더라도 이 스타트업은 낮은 매출 성장률로 인해 한동안 수익성이 없을 것입니다.
이러한 기본 요소를 갖춘 주식은 약 8배의 예상 매출로 거래될 자격이 없습니다.
공간 데이터 부문에는 이미 수익성이 있고 투자자로부터 훨씬 더 많은 관심을 받는 다른 회사도 많이 있습니다.

C3.ai (AI)

C3.ai (NYSE:AI) provides enterprise AI software for accelerating digital transformation. The company has been riding the recent AI hype wave, with its stock price soaring over 200% year-to-date despite lackluster fundamentals.

In my opinion, C3.ai is probably one of the worst stocks you could buy heading into a potential recession in 2024. The company’s recent Q4 FY2024 results showed revenue growth of 20% to $86.6 million, but it still posted a hefty net loss of $82.3 million. Subscription revenue, while growing 41%, comes with a dismal -84% gross margin. Analysts at firms like Morgan Stanley remain skeptical about the company’s path to profitability, with current projections not expecting positive earnings until fiscal 2027.

Management is sitting on lots of cash, but even then, I don’t think Wall Street will be too keen to keep paying premium for a business that has such terrible margins.

 

I believe C3.ai’s rally has been driven more by its fortunate ticker symbol and “AI” in its name rather than the actual substance of its business. The company touts AI capabilities, but in reality, it’s more of a buzzword – its products are closer to traditional enterprise software. C3.ai also has significant customer concentration risk, with oil services giant Baker Hughes (NASDAQ:BKR) accounting for a large chunk of revenue.

If the AI hype fizzles out or the economy sinks into a recession, C3.ai could be in for a rude awakening.

 

Virgin Galactic (SPCE)

Virgin Galactic (NYSE:SPCE) is a space tourism company that aims to send paying customers to the edge of space. Recently, the company has been struggling financially and operationally despite completing its final mission with the VSS Unity spaceplane in Q2 2024. In my opinion, Virgin Galactic is a stock I’d stay light years away from in a normal economic climate, let alone a potential 2024 recession.

The company is hemorrhaging cash, reporting a net loss of $94 million in Q2 2024 and burning through $114 million in free cash flow.

If it survives, I really don’t think this company will ever break even.

Analysts like Wells Fargo remain bearish, citing a lack of positive catalysts and cutting their price target to a dollar. I simply think Virgin Galactic is too far ahead of its time. Even with plans to launch the Delta class ships in 2026, it could take many years, if not decades, for space tourism to become solidly profitable.

While the wealthy are the target market, ticket prices around $300-450k aren’t exactly affordable, and I question the sustainability of customer demand. Space tourism seems more like a once-in-a-lifetime experience rather than a recurring revenue generator. With a recession looming, I believe you should jettison this stock from your portfolio before it crashes back down to Earth.

 

Lucid (LCID)

 

Despite reporting record deliveries in Q2 2024 and securing $1.5 billion in additional funding from Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, I think Lucid (NASDAQ:LCID) will still head to bankruptcy. The company posted a net loss of $643 million in Q2 on revenue of just $201 million.

I don’t think the company can achieve the scale and efficiency needed to compete with established EV makers. Its biggest rivals are already profitable and dominate the market. Lucid’s upcoming Gravity SUV will also face stiff competition from Rivian (NASDAQ:RIVN).

Plus, Lucid’s reliance on Saudi investment is the most concerning part. The Saudi PIF clearly believes in Lucid’s long-term potential, but if a recession hits, tanking oil prices could force them to pull back.

 

In the meantime, Lucid will likely continue diluting shareholders to help fund operations.

C3.ai(AI)
C3.ai(NYSE:AI)는 디지털 혁신을 가속화하기 위한 엔터프라이즈 AI 소프트웨어를 제공합니다. 이 회사는 최근 AI 과대광고에 편승해 왔으며, 기초가 부진함에도 불구하고 주가가 연초 이래 200% 이상 급등했습니다.
제 생각에 C3.ai는 2024년 잠재적 경기 침체에 돌입할 때 살 수 있는 최악의 주식 중 하나일 것입니다. 이 회사의 최근 4분기 FY2024 실적에 따르면 매출이 20% 증가하여 8,660만 달러를 기록했지만, 여전히 8,230만 달러의 막대한 순손실을 기록했습니다. 구독 수익은 41% 성장했지만, 총 마진은 -84%로 처참했습니다. Morgan Stanley와 같은 회사의 분석가들은 회사의 수익성 경로에 대해 여전히 회의적이며, 현재 예측에 따르면 2027 회계연도까지는 긍정적인 수익이 발생하지 않을 것으로 예상합니다.
경영진은 현금을 많이 보유하고 있지만, 그때조차도 월가가 이렇게 끔찍한 마진을 가진 회사에 프리미엄을 계속 지불하고 싶어하지 않을 것이라고 생각합니다.
저는 C3.ai의 랠리가 실제 사업의 본질보다는 운 좋은 티커 심볼과 이름에 있는 "AI"에 의해 더 많이 주도되었다고 생각합니다. 이 회사는 AI 기능을 자랑하지만 실제로는 유행어에 가깝습니다. 이 회사의 제품은 기존 엔터프라이즈 소프트웨어에 더 가깝습니다. C3.ai는 또한 상당한 고객 집중 위험이 있으며, 석유 서비스 거대 기업인 Baker Hughes(NASDAQ:BKR)가 매출의 상당 부분을 차지합니다.
AI 과대 광고가 사그라지거나 경제가 침체에 빠지면 C3.ai는 엄청난 충격을 받을 수 있습니다.

버진 갤럭틱(SPCE)
버진 갤럭틱(NYSE:SPCE)은 유료 고객을 우주 끝까지 보내는 것을 목표로 하는 우주 관광 회사입니다. 최근 이 회사는 2024년 2분기에 VSS 유니티 우주선으로 최종 임무를 완료했음에도 불구하고 재정적으로나 운영적으로 어려움을 겪고 있습니다. 제 생각에 버진 갤럭틱은 정상적인 경제 상황에서는, 특히 2024년 경기 침체 가능성이 있는 상황에서는 몇 광년 떨어져 있을 주식입니다.
이 회사는 현금을 낭비하고 있으며, 2024년 2분기에 9,400만 달러의 순손실을 보고했고 1억 1,400만 달러의 자유 현금 흐름을 소진했습니다.
이 회사가 살아남더라도 이 회사는 결코 손익분기점에 도달하지 못할 것이라고 생각합니다.
웰스 파고와 같은 분석가들은 긍정적인 촉매가 부족하다는 이유로 약세를 유지하고 있으며 목표 가격을 1달러로 낮추었습니다. 저는 버진 갤럭틱이 시대를 너무 앞서 나갔다고 생각합니다. 2026년에 델타급 우주선을 발사할 계획이 있더라도 우주 관광이 탄탄한 수익성을 갖기까지는 수십 년이 아니라면 수년이 걸릴 수 있습니다.
부유층이 타깃 시장이지만 티켓 가격이 30만~45만 달러에 달하는 것은 전혀 저렴하지 않으며 고객 수요의 지속 가능성에 의문이 있습니다. 우주 관광은 반복적인 수익 창출보다는 일생에 한 번뿐인 경험처럼 보입니다. 경기 침체가 다가오고 있으므로 지구로 다시 추락하기 전에 포트폴리오에서 이 주식을 버려야 한다고 생각합니다.

루시드(LCID)

2024년 2분기에 기록적인 납품 실적을 보고하고 사우디 아라비아 공공 투자 기금에서 15억 달러의 추가 자금을 확보했음에도 불구하고 루시드(NASDAQ:LCID)는 여전히 파산할 것으로 생각합니다. 이 회사는 2분기에 매출이 2억 100만 달러에 불과한 6억 4,300만 달러의 순손실을 기록했습니다.
이 회사가 기존 EV 제조업체와 경쟁하는 데 필요한 규모와 효율성을 달성할 수 있다고 생각하지 않습니다. 가장 큰 경쟁사들은 이미 수익성이 있고 시장을 지배하고 있습니다. Lucid의 차기 Gravity SUV도 Rivian(NASDAQ:RIVN)과 치열한 경쟁을 펼칠 것입니다.
게다가 Lucid가 사우디 투자에 의존하는 것이 가장 우려되는 부분입니다. 사우디 PIF는 Lucid의 장기적 잠재력을 분명히 믿지만 경기 침체가 닥치면 석유 가격이 폭락하여 철수할 수밖에 없을 것입니다.

그동안 Lucid는 운영 자금을 마련하기 위해 주주를 계속 희석할 가능성이 큽니다.

https://investorplace.com/2024/08/7-tech-stocks-to-sell-before-they-plummet-in-a-2024-recession/

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